Thursday, September 6, 2007

Send check to wippy1313 c/o ...

Blogger fantasy draft is now complete and I am confident in my superiority. The key to any fantasy draft, despite what podcasters and "experts" might tell you, is not discerning who is going to be the starting running back for the Falcons. If you're relying on Dunn or Norwood, you're in trouble. No, the key is understanding the league rules.

Virtually every fantasy league today operates under different rules. Some start x number of players and some start x+1...some give extra points for a TD of a certain length. The key is to understand those rules and exploit them in the draft. In this blogger league, QBs are given six points for a touchdown pass (same as RB and WR scoring a TD) and that makes them infinitely more valuable than 90% of the leagues out there. Key to this draft was getting what I consider to be one of the top four QBs in the league: Manning, Palmer, Brady and Brees. I ran numerous simulations and the QBs were, without a doubt, the most critical players.

So with the 8th pick in the first round, I was convinced I was going to get Manning. And as the picks went off the board, it was playing out exactly as I had expected. Tomlinson, Jackson, Johnson, Addai...all the players who are fantastic in most leagues, but not the best players in this league. Granted, had I had the #1 pick, I would have probably taken Tomlinson because he is so far and away the best RB, the others were over-rated. Then, the unthinkable happened. Schaubs took Manning right before me (Schaubs had a great draft). I was left looking at a Willie Parker vs. Palmer scenario. I took Palmer. And guess what? Parker was available coming back.

Long story short, I stuck to my guns, devalued WR and TE and highly valued QB and DEF and took a kicker with my final selection. Team looks like this:


Thomas Jones
Lamont Jordan
Ladell Betts

Santonio Holmes




Back-up RBs are potentially superstars, but not confidently solid. Could be an issue. Bruce is an injury risk and Holt is already hurt, but I like my WR. Side note on Holt: I actually wanted to take either Javon Walker or Roy Williams, but with my clock reading 1:20 left to make a pick, it auto-picked Holt. I raised the issue with the commish...he gave me Walker...but I asked him to reverse it given the cacophony of moaning from the other players. If Holt's knee continues to be a problem, that could be the difference.

All-in-all, I feel relatively confident. There are still a few good players on the waiver wire and I think I have a good core. But the key is having a good QB. Those starting Romo, Hasselbeck, et al are at a real disadvantage. Then again, the guy starting Hasselbeck has Tomlinson...sooooo...

1 comment:

lj said...

am thinking even more now that i should not have let you get parker. oh well, that is the joy of having rookie pick before and after you. :)