Kentucky Oaks...the bitch Derby

I haven't blogged much about horse racing since I started, but since I clearly have mastered poker (see post below), perhaps it's time to tackle new challenges.

Truth be told, horse racing was my first degenerate vice and one in which I have held several jobs. While the pari-mutuel aspect of horse racing certainly fulfills my gambling jones, I am probably one of the few remaining souls under 80 years-old and not employed by the Daily Racing Form that considers horse racing a sport.

One important distinction. When I refer to horse racing, I am including both thoroughbred racing and harness racing. I am a rare bi-racing fan...please, no e-mails from "RickEXTRAthick" ... I mean I enjoy both types of horse racing. It seems so many people are one or the other and harbor some extreme distaste for the other. This splintering is a major reason the sport is in the state that it is. But I digress.

We are about to embark on one of the premiere two-day stretches in thoroughbred racing with the Kentucky Oaks for three-year-old fillies tomorrow (Friday) and the Kentucky Derby for three-year-old colts on Saturday. There are any numbers of statistics (longest continual sporting event in America, over 150,000 people in attendance, over 100,000 mint juleps consumed) that you can bore people with or cliches (Greatest two minutes in sports) that you can bore people with. But simply put, I believe attending the Kentucky Derby (NOT in the cess pool that is the infield) is one of the top-10 things anyone should do before they die. Not sports fans. Anyone. It truly has something for everyone.

So I wanted to take a time-out to talk about the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby in this space to hopefully generate at least a passing interest and a passing fancy in this great drama and visual spectacle that is horse racing.

The Oaks is scheduled for 5:45 on Friday and will be broadcast live on ESPN. A few quick facts about the race, first run in 1875. It is conducted over 1 1/8 miles, the longest most of these fillies have run and the longest some of them will ever run. And more importantly for us gambaholics, it has a tendency to produce extreme longshots.

I don’t think this year will be any different.

The current favorite and horse du jour is Rags to Riches. She ships in from California for trainer Todd Pletcher, perhaps the hottest trainer in the country over the past several years. Her last start was the Santa Anita Oaks where she dominated at a short price, winning by five lengths. That was her third straight win following a fourth place debut last June. And while you can’t put a tremendous amount on a race almost a year ago, it was over the same track she’ll be running on in the Oaks. To take that a step farther, horses from California have NOT run well over the Churchill oval (with the notable exception or Mr. Giacomo in 2005).

I am not sold on this filly, as you can probably tell. I think she will be overbet due to the Pletcher connection, her rider Garrett Gomez and her recent win. She is a nice filly and very well may win by open lengths, but I am going to look elsewhere.

Also sure to be one of the favorites is High Heels. This is a filly of questionable breeding (E Dubai) for a small but effective stable (Gary Hartlage) with a journeyman jockey (Joe Johnson). Sounds more like a movie script than an Oaks-winning horse doesn’t it? Compile that with the fact that prior to her last score at Oaklawn in the Fantasy, she was only two-for-nine lifetime. Again, I will have to pass at morning line odds of 6-1.

Dreaming of Anna is the reigning juvenile filly Breeders Cup champion who at the time was even talking of taking on the boys in the Derby. Since then, however she has thrown in a weak third place finish at Gulfstream and a second place finish on the turf at the same track. She was then given well over two months off without even showing a work-out before being entered surprisingly in the Oaks. She was even taken out of the advanced betting. She will draw some money based on her BC win at Churchill last year, but I simply cannot see her getting 1 1/8 miles with her current fitness level.

So if I am discounting the two favorites, where am I leaning? Two places. First and foremost is Cotton Blossom. She was the “it” horse before her last race where she lost to High Heels at Oaklawn Park. Also trained by Pletcher, she was bet down to less than even money in that race before running into a brisk pace set by two longshots and perhaps being moved a little too early by John Velazquez. She picks up Edgar Prado here and I think she will get a trip much more to her liking in here. She is the definition of a stalker and I think in the third race of her form cycle is ready for a big jump. If I get 9-1 or higher, I will be all over her like R Kelly on a girl scout.

Another longshot selection is Mistical Plan. There are a lot of stalkers in this field, but not a ton of true speed with the exception of Dreaming of Anna and Mistical Plan. I am inclined to think Dreaming of Anna will be a little cautious in this race with not being on the track for several months and I foresee Mistical Plan on the lead by herself. Jockey David Flores is one of the best at getting his mounts out of the gate quickly and I think with a well-rated trip she has every chance to go gate-to-wire. Her last start was over the mystery substance that is polytrack in the Ashland at Keeneland. A notoriously closer-favoring track in the last year, I can forgive her fifth place finish after setting the pace. Her open-length victory over Oaks contender Octave at the Fair Grounds is much more likely to be a true example of her ability.

One horse I am very curious about is High Again. She is another stalker-type, but is one of the few in the field to show a line at 1 1/8 miles on her past performances and it was a driving victory in a stakes at Gulfstream Park. Trained by Bill Mott and ridden here by Cornelio Velazquez, I think she could provide a price for the exotics.

To help you further narrow down this 14-horse field, I think there are some easy “throw-outs” that don’t even warrant attention.

Cash Included is a highly-touted horse shipping from California, but she has never shown a finish higher than third in her sophomore campaign.

Grace Happens was only entered due to D. Wayne Lukas’ enormous ego and since he didn’t have anything in the derby, he put an overmatched filly in the Oaks. See: Ex Caelis last year.

Swift Temper has “miracle waiting to happen” Julian Leparoux but that miracle is going to have to wait a little longer. She doesn’t have a prayer.

Sealy Hill’s only good race came on Polytrack at Turfway Park. No thanks.

I think the way the race shapes up will have a tremendous amount to do with the ultimate winner, as is often the case. If Mistical Plan can get loose on the lead, I believe she will win. If she gets pressure from several sources and the stalkers move a little too early, I think a horse like Octave can definitely be the race-winner but at expected odds less than 5-1, I will play others. If the race COMPLETELY falls apart, perhaps Dawn After Dawn or Autobahn Girl could win and blow-up the toteboard in the process.

Derby preview tomorrow.

I will lose all "Table Cred"

But it's a risk I'm willing to take, even with the Mookie tonight.

So here it is. I am a ridiculously low-limit player with minimal success in my past performance line. Wow. It feels better to get that out there.

Now that we've established that, anyone reading this (my mother and some ridiculously bored inmates...thank you Iggy) has context for what I'm about to say.

I cashed last night in the $10 Daily Double A tournament on Full Tilt, finishing sixth out of over 1,100 entrants for a cool $400, taking my Full Tilt bankroll over $500 for the first time ever. Yes, you read that right. Not only is this my biggest cash ever in online poker, but the first time my account has been over $500. I have never deposited more than $125 in FT at any one time and have been grinding, grinding and grinding and playing WAY above my bankroll.

This cash was satisfying for several reasons. First of all, I finally have a legitimate online cash on my resume...popping my cherry if you will. "You're my Cherry Pie..." sorry...Warrant flashback. Secondly, it is the first time I have ever loosened my play up enough in the late stages of a large tournament to do anything other than bubble. Because I have been playing so far over my head, every $15 is important so instead of pushing with those pocket sevens, I make a limp-wristed call and fold when the 10-6-2 flop comes down. Yeah, I suck.

But more importantly, it drastically underscored the importance of bankroll management, even for a recreational player. The comfort level I had playing in that tournament, playing to win, not to save enough for the next .05/.10 PL Omaha table took me into a completely different mindset and completely elevated my game. I had always viewed bankroll management as simply a financial issue. Sure, I felt a little more tight when playing above my head (read: could barely breathe in the $5 PL Omaha game at 9:45), but I convinced myself that it didn't affect my play. Ha.

The scary thing is that now I don't have an excuse. I have $500 to play with, plenty of tournaments and tables that fall within that range and I need to practice what I'm currently preaching and play within that bankroll. We shall see. However, I can foresee an epic battle in the near future between my newfound view on bankroll management and my aforementioned quest for respect. With FTOPS on the horizon and the WSOP looming in the distance, I fear for my bankroll's safety.

And not just from that "Brazen Beauty" inmate.

Follow-up

I’ve been thinking about my last post and I think I have a solution. Someone needs to write a book about online play. Not the online play of “BodogAri” or the infamous “Waffles.” But solid, perceptive online play and things like bankroll management, how to detect betting patterns, how to recognize the “squeeze play” and benefits of deep stack tournaments (tricks to avoid the inevitable suck-out). So many of these principles are crucial for the $1-$2 limit live games too...these games are just online ring games played in person, aren’t they? You’ll find people of all skill levels, hiding behind relative anonymity and completely clueless to bet and pot sizes. You find tells are virtually worthless, hand valuation is a lost art and “all-in” is as common as “fold.”

All of this makes complete sense. Where are these $1-$2 players coming from? Where did they learn the game? Super System? Nope. Sawdust-infested card halls in the Lone Star state? Nope. More likely Party Poker. Freerolls even. And yet, here we are reading everything we can from the best in the world. Soaking up every CardPlayer article on the intricacies of playing pocket pairs from middle position.

Know thy enemy, right? Now…where can we find a bad rounder with enough time on his hands to tell us all he doesn’t know? Hmmm…I just might know one.

A new chapter...

I am preparing to embark on a new chapter in my life, one that will hopefully change the lives of my entire family for the better. No, I’m not learning Triple Draw 2-7. Although there’s money to be made there. In the next month I am planning on leaving the public relations firm with which I am currently employed and starting my own business. I am planning to parlay the experience and client-base I’ve accumulated to start my own public affairs firm.

I am clearly scared out of my mind, but provided the clients are there, it should allow me to spend more time with my family, make dinner and MAYBE a little more time for poker.

In addition, I am planning on doing a little freelance writing as well to supplement the other income. Maybe some poker, maybe some horse racing and maybe a book. Who knows. But if I do write a book, I think there is a serious gap in the poker literature. There are plenty of beginner books…thank you Phil Gordon and thank you Poker for Dummies, i.e. Negraneu’s treatise. There are plenty of “advanced” books…thank you Cloutier, McEvoy and Brunson. But who is writing about the “wild, wild, west” that is the $1-$2 NL tables in Vegas and the mid-level tables and tournaments online? In my opinion, nobody. And I think I know why.

Who can give advice on how to play against such a wide-range of, ahem, styles? Yeah. Styles. Really, think about many of the poker truisms that can be thrown COMPLETELY out the window.

In many of the standard poker books, one theorem oft repeated is that you play the player, not the cards…that the cards become irrelevant. Really? So you KNOW that guy called the $12 raise in the $1-$2 game with a 5-7 and flopped his straight? I mean, clearly they were suited. That explains it. You MAY be able to tell by his betting patterns, but there’s no tell in the world that can scream, “I played 5-7 and your pocket 10’s are no good here.”

Here’s one of my personal favorites. Raises are crucial to obtain information. Maybe if you raise $100. I was playing in the Cherokee Casino in Tulsa, OK yesterday…$1-$2 NL. I raised $15 from UTG +1 with AK. I knew it may fold around to me, but I was okay than that. But I really thought I would get one person willing to take a stab with that KQ. At a nine-handed table and the UTG already in the muck, guess how many callers? Five. Flop came K-6-2 rainbow. Somebody held 6-6. That was expensive. Was it my fault for over-valuing top pair? Maybe a little. But I had watched my opponent long enough to know that he would play any two cards to the river. This time he just happened to have a hand. Trips and he never raised. Yeah, the pre-flop raise and all the subsequent raises really gained me a lot of information.

My point is not to deride the play of anyone. Don’t tap the tank. I get it. And most of them time, I will reap the benefits. I know all of this. I am just pointing out that while the beginner books are worthwhile for beginners to learn about blinds, starting hands and chasing inside straights and advanced books are good for high-level play, I think these books are perhaps even detrimental to the mid-level players.

But what do I know? I’m starting my own business. Maybe I’ll re-think that 2-7 Triple Draw.

I can't believe I'm posting something positive about Barney Frank...GO BARNEY!

Frank bill would repeal ’06 Internet gaming crackdown

Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) will introduce legislation today that seeks to reverse a controversial crackdown on Internet gambling, which the Republican-led Congress passed in 2006.

While passing the bill will be difficult, there is a big financial incentive for Democratic leaders to pass it.

The chairman of the Financial Services Committee is looking to raise tens of billions of dollars with his new bill, which could be used to pay for expensive tax, healthcare, or other domestic legislation Democrats want to move this year.

The introduction of the bill and its expected movement in the 110th Congress shows how much has changed in the nation’s capital since the November elections.

With Democrats in the majority, the power of social conservatives diminished and new pay-as-you-go rules, supporters of a repeal believe the time to strike is now.

Frank, a longtime critic of regulating Internet gambling, opposes the law on philosophical grounds.

“It’s a terrible idea and there are a large number of people who think it is a terrible idea,” Frank said yesterday. “I don’t know how it ends. The worst that happens is that enough anti-gambling busybodies will be less inclined to interfere in people’s lives.”

Gambling lobbying groups were more than pleased by Frank’s announcement.

“We’re incredibly excited. I’m very interested in what the final version will look like,” Michael Bolcerek, president of the Poker Players Alliance, said. “But from what we understand, it will do the right thing for poker players and at the same time protect the public interest.”

The group, led by former Sen. Al D’Amato (R-N.Y.), was formed to overturn the gaming law.
Frank believes that the GOP is hypocritical in saying it wants to reduce government intrusion but then passes legislation that regulates certain personal freedoms.

In 2000, Frank said, “It is important that people be able to do what the Republican Party wants them to do on the Internet. If the Republican Party has no objection, then they can do it. But if the Republican Party thinks there are pictures they should not look at, or perhaps booze they should not buy, or bets they should not make, then freedom for the Internet goes away.”

Because the law significantly affects the financial services industry, Wall Street is closely monitoring the Frank bill.

Friedman Billings Ramsey, an investment firm, wrote in a strategy memo that the Frank bill could raise more than $20 billion over five years.

The bill is expected to call for the Internet gambling industry to be taxed through a structured system.

Frank’s proposal, however, could face an uphill battle in the House, which passed the stand-alone measure 317-93 last summer. A less stringent version of the bill was later folded into a port security measure that was signed by the president last fall.

One source said that leadership officials in the House are on board with Frank’s plan, though Frank said he did not seek clearance from them.

Several members of leadership voted for the House bill last July, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.). Meanwhile, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) voted no, as did Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.).
Republicans, who spent six years attempting to pass the Internet bill, are mobilizing against Frank’s effort.

“We’re going to fight it,” said Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), a leading proponent of the crackdown on Internet gambling. “I’d be surprised if the new leadership would want to bring back an issue that took six years, because of one Jack Abramoff, to resolve.”

In 2000, then GOP lobbyist Abramoff, now a convicted felon, marshaled his conservative allies in the House to defeat a bill that included a ban on Internet gambling.

The law prohibits Americans from using credit cards and checks to play on-line poker, place bets and engage in other forms of gambling.

The proposed legislation could benefit the offshore gambling sites that saw their U.S. customer base disappear when Congress stepped in last year. Hedge funds helped to drive down their stocks in anticipation of the curtailment of online gambling.

The share prices of PartyGaming LLC and 888 Holdings, two online gaming companies that are traded on the London stock exchange, have fallen more than 50 percent since last year.
The stocks have started to claw their way back in recent months, as hedge funds and other investors came to believe the government would falter at stamping out such a popular online activity. PartyGaming has seen its stock roughly double in the past three months.

Some U.S. companies also stand to gain from overturning the 2006 law, including Cryptologic, which provides software and services for internet gambling sites, said Andrew Parmentier, a senior analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey.

Lobbyists for banks and credit card companies that would have shouldered much of the burden of enforcing the gaming crackdown, reacted favorably to Frank’s announcement.

“We’d be very pleased to see that law repealed simply because it would remove a potential burden on the financial system and especially on community bankers,” said Steve Verdier, the senior vice president for congressional affairs at the Independent Community Bankers of America.

“We also understand it will be a little bit of a road to get a repeal,” he added.

Bob Cusack contributed to this report.

The Hill (04/26/07)

Biggest Flaw in Your Poker Game?

No, I don't mean, "Well, 76% of the time when I get KJo in the hijack and flat call, I find myself vulnerable to pocket pairs 33-99..." I will leave that to PokerTracker. I mean mentally. Psychologically. What is your biggest flaw? Mine is easy. My desire for respect.

This may sound odd (or slightly Rodney Dangerfield-esque for anyone old enough to remember Rodney Dangerfield or brilliant enough to recognize the genius of Caddyshack)...but hear me out. I assure you, it is an even bigger problem than your inability to fold the KJ. I am slowly beginning to realize that this perfectionism and childish focus on praise and acceptance is self-destructive in my professional life, but I am painfully aware of the -EV as it relates to this particular game of skill.

My yearning for respect at the poker table, either on the virtual or visibly stained felt, manifests itself in several ways. First of all, and most glaringly, I WAY overuse the continuation bet. I want respect for the hand that I am pretending I am holding. Nice, huh? There are just sometimes where a check is prudent, necessary or at the very least acceptable. Not me. I fire. Everytime. I just can't help myself.

Less obviously, I become obsessed with any kind of standings. In my monthly poker league, I would rather finish third every time and end up with high points for the league (but toward the bottom in ROI) than win twice and flip-flop the deliverables. I played virtually EVERY BBT event until this week. I was one of the leaders in events played and one of the bottom feeders for points per events played. With $0 to show for my efforts.

I find this quixotic quest for respect to be even worse in live play than in online play. The thought of getting up first from that tournament and walking out of the room, knowing I got all of my money in with the best of it is terrifying. I would much rather finish in the middle of the pack and have folded that middle set because I was just SURE the other guy had top set and I didn't want to bust too early. I even play for the "story." You know, the story you tell your poker-retarded friends and loved ones. The one where, "I got all of my money in as a 60% favorite, but the donkey sucked out on me and I was first out" = LOSER. But "I was just card dead...I fought and fought and finished 32nd out of 195" = ersatz credibility. Could you HAVE a more destructive philosophy? Aside from a style of play which earns you the nickname "Mr. Inside Straight" of course.

I enter this confessional because last night I expended a hard-earned $75 token to enter a satellite for the 100-seat Main Event Extravaganza on Full Tilt. I won a nice pot early on and found myself sitting near the top of the 19 person field. I proceeded to play not to lose and subsequently bubbled fourth when top 2 got seats and third got $250. In a tournament where the top three get paid, my honest to God goal after that first pot was to make the final table. Not to win. Not to earn a seat. To best less than half the field and watch my full tilt background morph into the bastardized WPT final table set.

Why? Because I recently uncovered the poker database where you can check your stats and I felt my final table percentage was a little too low. As MTTs are my passion when it comes to poker, this is the one mental flaw I simply MUST overcome if I am ever to become profitable. As any highly-paid and equally fucked up shrink will tell you, admitting it is the first step. Now...if I just knew what the second step was...

"I hear this place is restricted, Wang, so don't tell 'em you're Jewish, okay?"

Calling all "Graphic-Type" People...

I need a logo developed. Anyone good with graphic software? E-mail me at wippy1313@hotmail.com.