Kentucky Oaks...the bitch Derby

I haven't blogged much about horse racing since I started, but since I clearly have mastered poker (see post below), perhaps it's time to tackle new challenges.

Truth be told, horse racing was my first degenerate vice and one in which I have held several jobs. While the pari-mutuel aspect of horse racing certainly fulfills my gambling jones, I am probably one of the few remaining souls under 80 years-old and not employed by the Daily Racing Form that considers horse racing a sport.

One important distinction. When I refer to horse racing, I am including both thoroughbred racing and harness racing. I am a rare bi-racing fan...please, no e-mails from "RickEXTRAthick" ... I mean I enjoy both types of horse racing. It seems so many people are one or the other and harbor some extreme distaste for the other. This splintering is a major reason the sport is in the state that it is. But I digress.

We are about to embark on one of the premiere two-day stretches in thoroughbred racing with the Kentucky Oaks for three-year-old fillies tomorrow (Friday) and the Kentucky Derby for three-year-old colts on Saturday. There are any numbers of statistics (longest continual sporting event in America, over 150,000 people in attendance, over 100,000 mint juleps consumed) that you can bore people with or cliches (Greatest two minutes in sports) that you can bore people with. But simply put, I believe attending the Kentucky Derby (NOT in the cess pool that is the infield) is one of the top-10 things anyone should do before they die. Not sports fans. Anyone. It truly has something for everyone.

So I wanted to take a time-out to talk about the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby in this space to hopefully generate at least a passing interest and a passing fancy in this great drama and visual spectacle that is horse racing.

The Oaks is scheduled for 5:45 on Friday and will be broadcast live on ESPN. A few quick facts about the race, first run in 1875. It is conducted over 1 1/8 miles, the longest most of these fillies have run and the longest some of them will ever run. And more importantly for us gambaholics, it has a tendency to produce extreme longshots.

I don’t think this year will be any different.

The current favorite and horse du jour is Rags to Riches. She ships in from California for trainer Todd Pletcher, perhaps the hottest trainer in the country over the past several years. Her last start was the Santa Anita Oaks where she dominated at a short price, winning by five lengths. That was her third straight win following a fourth place debut last June. And while you can’t put a tremendous amount on a race almost a year ago, it was over the same track she’ll be running on in the Oaks. To take that a step farther, horses from California have NOT run well over the Churchill oval (with the notable exception or Mr. Giacomo in 2005).

I am not sold on this filly, as you can probably tell. I think she will be overbet due to the Pletcher connection, her rider Garrett Gomez and her recent win. She is a nice filly and very well may win by open lengths, but I am going to look elsewhere.

Also sure to be one of the favorites is High Heels. This is a filly of questionable breeding (E Dubai) for a small but effective stable (Gary Hartlage) with a journeyman jockey (Joe Johnson). Sounds more like a movie script than an Oaks-winning horse doesn’t it? Compile that with the fact that prior to her last score at Oaklawn in the Fantasy, she was only two-for-nine lifetime. Again, I will have to pass at morning line odds of 6-1.

Dreaming of Anna is the reigning juvenile filly Breeders Cup champion who at the time was even talking of taking on the boys in the Derby. Since then, however she has thrown in a weak third place finish at Gulfstream and a second place finish on the turf at the same track. She was then given well over two months off without even showing a work-out before being entered surprisingly in the Oaks. She was even taken out of the advanced betting. She will draw some money based on her BC win at Churchill last year, but I simply cannot see her getting 1 1/8 miles with her current fitness level.

So if I am discounting the two favorites, where am I leaning? Two places. First and foremost is Cotton Blossom. She was the “it” horse before her last race where she lost to High Heels at Oaklawn Park. Also trained by Pletcher, she was bet down to less than even money in that race before running into a brisk pace set by two longshots and perhaps being moved a little too early by John Velazquez. She picks up Edgar Prado here and I think she will get a trip much more to her liking in here. She is the definition of a stalker and I think in the third race of her form cycle is ready for a big jump. If I get 9-1 or higher, I will be all over her like R Kelly on a girl scout.

Another longshot selection is Mistical Plan. There are a lot of stalkers in this field, but not a ton of true speed with the exception of Dreaming of Anna and Mistical Plan. I am inclined to think Dreaming of Anna will be a little cautious in this race with not being on the track for several months and I foresee Mistical Plan on the lead by herself. Jockey David Flores is one of the best at getting his mounts out of the gate quickly and I think with a well-rated trip she has every chance to go gate-to-wire. Her last start was over the mystery substance that is polytrack in the Ashland at Keeneland. A notoriously closer-favoring track in the last year, I can forgive her fifth place finish after setting the pace. Her open-length victory over Oaks contender Octave at the Fair Grounds is much more likely to be a true example of her ability.

One horse I am very curious about is High Again. She is another stalker-type, but is one of the few in the field to show a line at 1 1/8 miles on her past performances and it was a driving victory in a stakes at Gulfstream Park. Trained by Bill Mott and ridden here by Cornelio Velazquez, I think she could provide a price for the exotics.

To help you further narrow down this 14-horse field, I think there are some easy “throw-outs” that don’t even warrant attention.

Cash Included is a highly-touted horse shipping from California, but she has never shown a finish higher than third in her sophomore campaign.

Grace Happens was only entered due to D. Wayne Lukas’ enormous ego and since he didn’t have anything in the derby, he put an overmatched filly in the Oaks. See: Ex Caelis last year.

Swift Temper has “miracle waiting to happen” Julian Leparoux but that miracle is going to have to wait a little longer. She doesn’t have a prayer.

Sealy Hill’s only good race came on Polytrack at Turfway Park. No thanks.

I think the way the race shapes up will have a tremendous amount to do with the ultimate winner, as is often the case. If Mistical Plan can get loose on the lead, I believe she will win. If she gets pressure from several sources and the stalkers move a little too early, I think a horse like Octave can definitely be the race-winner but at expected odds less than 5-1, I will play others. If the race COMPLETELY falls apart, perhaps Dawn After Dawn or Autobahn Girl could win and blow-up the toteboard in the process.

Derby preview tomorrow.