This Derby's A Bitch

Before I launch into my Derby diatribe, I would like to add an addendum to my Oaks post yesterday. Louisville has been plagued with rain most of the week and the weather isn’t letting up. It looks as if today’s track could be less than blistering and tomorrow’s more of the same. While they will never allow a derby to be raced in the complete slop if they can avoid it (no choice the year Smarty won), I expect the strip to be a little better tomorrow. But today, eh, not so much.

As a result, I am tacking a little more credence to Autobahn Girl as she should be a decent price, is trained by Nick Zito and has the second highest Tomlinson ratings in the field. What is a Tomlinson rating? It’s Kramer’s “her mudder was a mudder” theory played out in numbers. Horses are ascribed figures for their affinity for wet tracks (and turf) based on their breeding. So if Autobahn Girl has the second highest Tomlinson rating of the field…who has the first? Rags to Riches. The favorite. Who I’m tossing.

Doh.

My bets for the Oaks:

$1 Exacta Box – 4,5,10,13,14 (Octave, Cotton Blossom, Autobahn Girl, Mistical Plan and High Again)…$20

$1 Oaks-Derby Double – 5, 10, 13/12, 18, 19, 20 (Cotton Blossom, Autobahn Girl, Mistical Plan/Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday, Dominican, Great Hunter)…$12

$20 win on Cotton Blossom (if above 10-1)

Good luck to me.

***

If the Oaks is the day for Louisville where everyone from the surrounding area enjoys the spectacle that is Derby week at Churchill Downs, Derby day is the day for Los Angeles and New York and Dubai and … you get the picture. Over 100,000 people buying $8 beers and $10 bloody mary’s and wagering more than they make in three months with men wearing a suit that’s more than they make in six months and women wearing dresses that would earn them more than they make in a year if they wore them on certain streets in certain cities (If they were whores…keep up).

Regardless, the Derby is wonderful. And this year will be the first derby I have missed in quite some time. Thankfully I will be watching with my dad and he has agreed to spill beer on me, charge me $6 for a hot dog from the grill and stand in front of the computer while I’m trying to make my bets reading his program for races three hours later a different track. So it’s like Louisville in Columbus.

I waxed poetic quite liberally on the wonders of the Derby yesterday. Let’s get down to business. I’ll follow the same structure for my Derby picks that I did for my Oaks selections yesterday.

The morning line favorite for the Derby is a lightly raced colt by Smart Strike named Curlin. He only has three starts under his belt, all this year. When people handicap the Derby year in and year out, there are many tidbits of conventional wisdom they like to rely on. There is a mythical statistic called dosage which takes certain breeding characteristics into account and for years there was a belief that a horse without a certain dosage could never win the Derby. Phooey. For a long-time, it was thought that geldings would never win another Derby. Roses, meet Funny Cide. Hogwash. There is a juvenile breeder’s cup winner “jinx” where no freshman champion has stood in the winner’s circle on the first Saturday in May. I think this has more to do with the way horses are campaigned and the fragility of today’s thoroughbred than a mystical curse. It’s just asking to be broken (but I hope not this year…more on that later).

But two conventions which have stood the test are time are that horses need to have raced at two and horses need at least four races under their saddle to be considered. Apollo was the last horse unraced at two to emerge victorious in the Derby…back in ’82. That’s 1882. The filly Regret was the last to be immortalized in Derby lore after only three career starts. 1915.

As a history major in college (sweet jesus what was I thinking?)…those numbers are rather dramatic and enough for me to play against Curlin on Saturday. But on paper, he is a possible superhorse. He has won his three career starts by a combined 28 lengths, including a visually striking 10-length score in the Arkansas Derby. Everyone who has seen this horse in person pontificates that he is the “ideal” thoroughbred in conformation. But in my opinion, unbettable for pari-mutuel purposes. Throw in the fact that I think 90% of the horses he has beaten so far are currently holding together the envelopes of america’s tax returns and if he wins, I will mutter, “it’s great for the sport” and grab another beer.

The other Derby darling is Street Sense. He is the aforementioned BC juvenile champ that I am hoping cannot break the curse. I will refrain from saying “I hope Street Sense breaks a leg” because I said that at the BC last year and Pine Island did just that and was euthanized on the track. SOOOOOOO…I’ll just say I hope Street Sense finishes fourth. No lawsuits coming from that. He was visually impressive in his ten-length romp over the best in the world last November at this same Churchill Downs track. But he did it from, not a golden rail, but maybe platinum…or plutonium…the rail was magic that day. And Street Sense should know. He never left it.

Likewise, in his first start of 2007, Street Sense BARELY beat Any Given Saturday after a dramatic stretch duel that demonstrated the heart of these two warriors. But he never had to leave the rail in an already short field. I think more than any other horse, Street Sense will be hindered by the field size. To make matters more shaky for Street Sense, his jockey is Calvin Borel, who while not exactly Manute Bol in the stirrups, is inexperienced in the Derby and may have some trouble navigating the horse to daylight. At least, that’s what I’m betting on. Or, rather, not betting on.

But I WILL be betting on Any Given Saturday. This 0-for-Derby number for Todd Pletcher simply cannot stand…I was reminded today that D. Wayne Lukas went 0-15 before he won his first of three. This year, like Nick Zito two years ago, Pletcher is loaded and I have landed on his poorest drawing colt.

Starting position isn’t nearly as important in thoroughbred racing as it is in harness racing, but in a field of 20, geometry would tell you starting 18^th isn’t the BEST spot to be. Others would point to AGS “weak” performance in the Wood as an indicator that he just doesn’t measure up. But that race was deceiving. If you watch the Wood:

You will notice that Johnny Velazquez didn’t exactly give AGS the perfect trip. He was wide both turns, never really moved him with authority. It screamed of a warm-up trip and he still got a 91 Beyer which is higher than many horses on their best day. To make matters worse, AGS was on “short” rest after the aforementioned grueling stretch duel with Street Sense in the Tampa Derby. AGS showed me a lot in that race and the PPs show me one other thing I like a lot…he has a VERY high Tomlinson rating. If the track comes up muddy, AGS could revel in it. Add on top of that, the best big money jockey in the sport in my humble opinion, Garrett Gomez, and AGS is my horse.

The one big knock against AGS in my mind though is that he is the “wise guy” horse this year from what I understand. Every year a horse captures the attention of the “wise guys” on the backstretch, in the OTBs in New York City, in the back of Sirens here in Columbus…or so I’ve heard. Every year that horse is touted, every year he takes A LOT of money and every year he finished up the track. I ALWAYS bet against that horse. Until this year.

One of my other Derby pet peeves is people who pick two horses out of the same prep race. Guess what? I’m doing that too. My second selection is Nobiz Like Shobiz. He beat AGS in the Wood and as you could see from the video, was very determined in holding on to win that race. The knock against him is that he is very immature, especially in the stretch drive. In his Fountain of Youth race against Scat Daddy, Nobiz refused to run straight in the stretch, costing himself the victory. As a result, trainer Barclay Tagg added blinkers and cotton in the ears of Nobiz for the Wood…to a fantastic result. I am just so impressed with his determination and progression as a racehorse. His jockey, Cornelio Velazquez doesn’t inspire a TON of confidence, but he should get Nobiz in decent position from post 12.

The horse that I just cannot help but like (although trust me, I have tried) is Great Hunter. Anyone that knows my biases in life knows that I hate strippers who wear perfume AND glitter, prefer Pepsi to coke and I hate horses from California. Great Hunter has had seven starts lifetime and this will be his second outside California. But his first…the BC at Churchill in November where he was steadied in the first turn and was quite impressive in finishing third. His first race this year was a Grade 2 in California where he took the lead four-wide into the lane and swept by Derby-entrant Sam P for the victory and a 101 Beyer.

He was bet down to second favorite in the Blue Grass, which was run over the NOTORIOUSLY closer-favoring polytrack. And while that normally would fit Great Hunter’s style perfectly, he was WAY too close to the pace and finished a dawdling fifth. The only thing that race did was pump up his odds for the Derby. I’m not a tremendous Doug O’Neil fan and he conditions Great Hunter, but he is well respected and Corey Nakatani is a solid rider who I am convinced can work out a trip for Great Hunter. If there is any kind of pace and Great Hunter can weave through traffic, I can see him getting the last call at a solid price.

The complete mystery to me in this field is another horse who drew VERY poorly and that’s Dominican. Sandwiched between Great Hunter and AGS, Dominican is a stone closer in the vein of Circular Quay. He won the Blue Grass at Keeneland in typical come-from-behind fashion, but while I might easily toss out a horse who has done that, but nothing else, Dominican very well may be just coming into his own. His race before that, also on polytrack, was more of a stalking trip where he exploded against inferior company to win by open lengths.

As a two-year-old, Dominican raced on dirt, including the Churchill surface to mediocre results, but the question about this colt is whether his improvement is due to his maturity or the change in surface. My guess is a little bit of both, but based on his bullet work at Churchill Downs and the fact that he’s being ridden by the once and still king of Kentucky, Rafael Bejarano (with apologies to Mr. Leparoux)…he will get some of my money. I think you will see three horses flying around the far turn in the Derby and one of them will seriously challenge for the victory. It could be Great Hunter, it could be Dominican and it could be Circular Quay.

With 20 horses, it becomes painful to go through horse by horse to find ones to include, especially in the exotics. To help you in that, allow me to give you some horses that do not even require 30 seconds of attention.

Sedgefield is a turf horse. The Derby is run on dirt. While nobody has discussed this angle, I think he is solely in here to ensure a solid pace for stablemate Dominican.

Storm in May is a beautiful, gray horse who is blind in one eye and virtually unbettable to any handicapper with TWO eyes.

Cowtown Cat is another Pletcher entry with three wins in four starts, but appears to be drastically overmatched in here. Great for Jara to get a chance to ride in the Derby…now if Pletcher will just put him on a contender.

Liquidity will be about 60-1 and should be 100-1. He ran a 102 Beyer in a bogus California race in February. It takes more than that to win the Derby. And David Flores is his jockey. It takes more than that to win the Derby.

Teuflesberg deserves a medal for being raced 11 times since last July and still standing upright. He doesn’t however deserve a blanket of Roses in May.

Bwana Bull just keeps showing up every 3-4 weeks, racing and producing mediocre results. Mediocre wins Grade 3 races at Bay Meadows. Not the Derby.

Sadly…that still leaves us with nine horses!

Zanjero is a somewhat chic longshot pick and he does have a decent turn of foot, but will need one clean run and rarely is that trip available in this race. Imawildandcrazyguy is improving and broke poorly in his last start, giving him an excuse. Hard Spun turned in an almost world record work and many are concerned it took too much out of him. I’m concerned there wasn’t enough in him to begin with. His best win was at Turfway Park for God’s sake. Sam P. is a Pletcher pupil who could mix it up a little in the early and middle stages of the race. I am slightly intrigued by him and if my brother from a Hispanic mother Ramon Dominguez can work his magic, he could conceivably be a factor in this race. Scat Daddy is THE horse that I am throwing out for the most part that scares me the most. He just looks like a winner. I hate tossing horses like that. Edgar Prado is in the saddle. I HATE throwing horses like that. If I can get decent odds on him, 8-1 or higher, I might have to include him. Tiago is another wise-guy horse as he is the brother to Giacomo and has a similar running style…but maybe even better acceleration. I just don’t think he’ll get a good trip in here and it will be a rude awakening with horses of this caliber and a field of this size. Circular Quay has been off too long for my tastes and I don’t like his running style as a rule. Stormello will likely be battling for the lead early with Sedgefield and Teuflesberg and will likely be battling for the booby prize with Sedgefield and Teuflesberg late. And no, that prize is not awarded in the infield. (Rimshot please…those however ARE often awarded in the infield)

Phew. That does it. I’ll post my actual Derby plays tomorrow. To give you something to play against.